Time-Series Forecasting Tool

Customer Challenge

The Air Force needed a tool to predict changing logistics metrics for aircraft availability, maintenance, and manpower.

Innovative Solution

Illumination Works developed a versatile time series forecasting application to predict aircraft metrics including inherent and induced failures, corrosion rates, equipment repair hours and actions, and workforce manhours. ILW normalized forecasts against fleet utilization measures such as aircraft age, flight
hours, and sorties to ensure more accurate and actionable insights. 

Benefits/Outcomes

  • 24,000 multi-variate models covering all aircraft systems and maintenance work unit codes
  • Confidence interval bracketing of forecasts for rational decision-making accounting for uncertainty in the predictions
  • Compute clusters with multi-threading enables rapid forecast generation
  • Forecasts and model performance visualized on Tableau dashboard
  • Application concept ideation to production deployment in six months

Toolbox

  • Auto-regressive, dense neural network, long short-term memory (LSTM), deep LSTM, and bidirectional LSTM models
  • TensorflowML Platform and Keras API
  • Python on Databricks
  • Amazon Cloud (DBFS)
  • Tableau business intelligence

Business Value

  • Accurate forecasts for manpower, maintenance planning, and workforce management decision making
  • Improved maintenance planning to yield increased aircraft availability and readiness
  • Enhanced efficiencies and cost savings

Domain Expertise

  • Air Force weapon system maintenance and logistics data

Related Case Studies You May Like

Time-Series Forecasting Tool (Air Force)

Time-Series Forecasting Tool (Air Force)

Modernization to Cloud-Native Capabilities (Air Force)

Modernization to Cloud-Native Capabilities (Air Force)

Data-Driven Financial Budget Planning (Air Force)

Data-Driven Financial Budget Planning (Air Force)

AI/ML Analytics Framework & Services (Air Force)

AI/ML Analytics Framework & Services (Air Force)

Data Pipeline for Improved Data Management (Insurance/Retail)

Data Pipeline for Improved Data Management (Insurance/Retail)

Automated Data Labeling and Curation (Army)

Automated Data Labeling and Curation (Army)

Automated Part Candidacy Analysis Pipeline (Army)

Automated Part Candidacy Analysis Pipeline (Army)

Data Science & Architecture Assessment (Marketing)

Data Science & Architecture Assessment (Marketing)

Automated Data Cleansing with Machine Learning (Navy)

Automated Data Cleansing with Machine Learning (Navy)

Big Data Ingestion & Cloud Architecture

Big Data Ingestion & Cloud Architecture

Cloud-Native PaaS Architecture

Cloud-Native PaaS Architecture

Data Integration Hub Modernization (Air Force)

Data Integration Hub Modernization (Air Force)

Data Warehousing & Business Intelligence

Data Warehousing & Business Intelligence

Big Data Engineering for Improved Analytics (Retail)

Big Data Engineering for Improved Analytics (Retail)

Agile Big Data Development (Retail)

Agile Big Data Development (Retail)

Cloud-Based Big Data Analytics (Retail)

Cloud-Based Big Data Analytics (Retail)

Cost Allocation Rules Engine Modernization (Insurance)

Cost Allocation Rules Engine Modernization (Insurance)

Data Services Cloud Migration Support (Air Force)

Data Services Cloud Migration Support (Air Force)

Predictive Analytics for the Aircraft Digital Thread (Air Force)

Predictive Analytics for the Aircraft Digital Thread (Air Force)

On-Demand Maintenance Analytics for Logistics (Air Force)

On-Demand Maintenance Analytics for Logistics (Air Force)

Sensor Data Analysis for Predictive CBM+ (Retail)

Sensor Data Analysis for Predictive CBM+ (Retail)

Data Cleansing and Migration (Energy)

Data Cleansing and Migration (Energy)

Application Modernization (Healthcare)

Application Modernization (Healthcare)

Large-Scale Data Integration (Air Force)

Large-Scale Data Integration (Air Force)

Data Science Big Data Ingestion (Energy)

Data Science Big Data Ingestion (Energy)

Transformation to Modern Analytics Framework (Energy)

Transformation to Modern Analytics Framework (Energy)

Agile Big Data Analytics Framework (Retail)

Agile Big Data Analytics Framework (Retail)

Big Data Hadoop Administration (Retail)

Big Data Hadoop Administration (Retail)

Modern Data Ingestion Framework (Insurance)

Modern Data Ingestion Framework (Insurance)

Engines Forecast Reporting Tool (Air Force)

Engines Forecast Reporting Tool (Air Force)

Data Quality & Lineage Mapping (Retail)

Interested In Working With Us?